For the second straight month, truckload volumes rose slightly within the data, but LTL volumes declined. We think the LTL declines reflect ongoing available TL capacity—where low rates lead shippers to consolidate LTL loads into truckloads—and private fleet insourcing. The positivity in TL volumes may be temporary, as pre-tariff shipping may lead to more air pockets in demand.
Just as we correctly expected tariff reprieves to support a recovery in September volumes, we also expect tariffs to result in volume declines and additional softness as price increases reduce affordability and impact spending.
See the Methodology for the Cass Freight Index
The expenditures component of the Cass Freight Index, which measures the total amount spent on freight, rose 5.1% m/m in September. Expenditures were 2.2% above the year-ago level in September, after a 0.4% y/y decline in August.
The flattish results of the past few months were a combination of lower shipments and higher rates.
The expenditures component of the Cass Freight Index, after a record 38% surge in 2021 and another 23% increase in 2022, fell 19% in 2023 and 11% in 2024.
The Cass Truckload Linehaul Index rose 1.7% m/m in September, after a 1.8% decrease in August.
This index fell 10% in 2023, another 3.4% in 2024, and is trending toward a modest 1%-2% increase in 2025.
See the Methodology for the Cass Truckload Linehaul Index
While demand trends are mixed and the outlook remains cloudy, capacity continues to contract. Class 8 tractor production is on track to decline about 32% from 1H to 2H this year, to a rate several thousand trucks per month below what is needed to maintain the fleet size. In our view, lower capacity in an otherwise stable demand environment could move the cycle forward and actually create for-hire demand by reversing the insourcing of recent years. But this will take time.
The recent trends in our ACT Driver Availability Index suggest the driver market is no longer loose, but not yet tight. This index, from a survey of medium and large fleets, needed to fall below 40 the last two cycles before rates responded.
The new rules on non-domiciled drivers could tighten driver capacity over the next one-to-two years, and the net effects of the immigration crackdown should be captured in the ACT Driver Availability Index.
Forecasts through 2027 are detailed in the ACT Research Freight Forecast. This service provides in-depth analysis and forecasts for a broad range of US freight measures, including the Cass Freight Index, Cass Truckload Linehaul Index, DAT spot and contract rates by trailer type, LTL, and intermodal price indexes. The monthly report provides monthly, quarterly, and annual predictions for over forty data series over a two- to three-year time horizon, including capacity, volumes, and rates. The ACT Research Freight Forecast is released monthly in conjunction with the Cass Transportation Index report.
How have ACT Research’s freight forecasts performed? Their 2024 forecasts for the Cass Truckload Linehaul Index were 98.8% accurate on average from 18 months out. The Cass Truckload Linehaul Index averaged 139.3 in 2024, precisely in line with our December 2023 estimate.
(As a reminder, ACT Research’s Tim Denoyer writes this report.)
For 2024, ACT’s forecasts for the shipments component of the Cass Freight Index were 95.0% accurate on average for the 18-month forecast period.
Release date: We strive to release our indexes on the 13th of each month. When this falls on a Friday or weekend, our goal is to publish on the next business day.
