In recent months, the declines have been concentrated in LTL, as ongoing LTL rate increases in a soft market cause more shippers to consolidate LTL loads into TLs, in addition to the insourcing going on at a pair of mega-shippers.
Demand air pockets are likely to continue, but the severity of inflation depends on the coming Supreme Court ruling on IEEPA tariffs, which could occur any time from soon to June.
See the Methodology for the Cass Freight Index
The expenditures component of the Cass Freight Index, which measures the total amount spent on freight, fell 3.9% m/m in October. Expenditures were 0.2% below the year-ago level in October, after a 2.2% y/y gain in September.
The flattish results of the past few months were a combination of fewer shipments and higher rates. We infer rates rose 8.2% y/y, largely due to changing modal mix with more TL and less LTL, similar to recent months.
The expenditures component of the Cass Freight Index, after a record 38% surge in 2021 and another 23% increase in 2022, fell 19% in 2023 and 11% in 2024.
The Cass Truckload Linehaul Index®, which measures changes in linehaul rates, rose 1.1% m/m in October, after a 1.7% increase in September.
This index fell 10% in 2023, another 3.4% in 2024, and we expect a short, modest 1.5% increase in 2025.
See the Methodology for the Cass Truckload Linehaul Index
Fleets continue to struggle financially, and with losses continuing to pile up, investments are being sharply curtailed. There are a few—quality dedicated service providers in particular—who seem to be operating head and shoulders above the rest. But for the parts of the for-hire trucking industry in the red, and there are many even among quality fleets, the dollars aren’t there for equipment investment, particularly as tariffs push costs up. The commercial vehicle outlook from ACT Research foresees considerable declines in equipment demand in 2026, with rates insufficient to offset cost inflation.
The public TL fleets’ margins are at generational lows and unable to find traction in 2025. Highway tractor capacity is contracting at a quickening pace, both due to ongoing closures in the for-hire market, and more recently the reversal of private fleet expansion. The issue for the freight cycle is now the affordability reductions that tariffs are beginning to impose on U.S. consumers. These taxes could be mitigated if the Supreme Court upholds rulings that the IEEPA tariffs are unconstitutional, which seems possible after oral arguments.
Forecasts through 2027 are detailed in the ACT Research Freight Forecast. This service provides in-depth analysis and forecasts for a broad range of US freight measures, including the Cass Freight Index, Cass Truckload Linehaul Index, DAT spot and contract rates by trailer type, LTL, and intermodal price indexes. The monthly report provides monthly, quarterly, and annual predictions for over forty data series over a two- to three-year time horizon, including capacity, volumes, and rates. The ACT Research Freight Forecast is released monthly in conjunction with the Cass Transportation Index report.
How have ACT Research’s freight forecasts performed? Their 2024 forecasts for the Cass Truckload Linehaul Index were 98.8% accurate on average from 18 months out. The Cass Truckload Linehaul Index averaged 139.3 in 2024, precisely in line with our December 2023 estimate.
(As a reminder, ACT Research’s Tim Denoyer writes this report.)
For 2024, ACT’s forecasts for the shipments component of the Cass Freight Index were 95.0% accurate on average for the 18-month forecast period.
Release date: We strive to release our indexes on the 13th of each month. When this falls on a Friday or weekend, our goal is to publish on the next business day.
