After truckload volumes briefly improved in Q3 ahead of the October 5 import tariff deadline, they have softened again so far in Q4 as pre-tariff stocks are drawn down.
Resilient early holiday consumer spending data suggest some pent-up demand could be building, but tariffs are likely to continue to press prices higher and affordability lower in 2026.
See the Methodology for the Cass Freight Index
The expenditures component of the Cass Freight Index, which measures the total amount spent on freight, fell 0.2% m/m in November. Expenditures were 1.2% below the year-ago level in November, after a 0.2% y/y slip in October.
The flattish results of the past few months were a combination of lower shipments and higher rates. We infer rates rose 6.8% y/y, largely due to changing modal mix with more TL and less LTL, similar to recent months.
The expenditures component of the Cass Freight Index, after a record 38% surge in 2021 and another 23% increase in 2022, fell 19% in 2023 and 11% in 2024. In 2025, the index is likely to decline by under 1%, and it could end up flat with a strong December.
The Cass Truckload Linehaul Index rose 0.1% m/m in November, after a 1.1% increase in October.
This index fell 10% in 2023, another 3.4% in 2024, and we estimate a 1.7% increase in 2025.
See the Methodology for the Cass Truckload Linehaul Index
Frigid December weather, featuring three storms so far, is consistent with the La Nina weather pattern that could continue to bring more storms across the northern U.S. and Canada, while likely leaving the South drier. This is pinching spot capacity pretty hard during one of the seasonally strongest periods of the year for demand, sending spot rates up in recent weeks.
Though not necessarily sustainable, as weather effects are typically brief, the stormy winter combines with tightening capacity and contributes to the eventual cycle turn. This moves the freight rate outlook up in the near term.
On the other hand, news from the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) via the American Truck Associations (ATA) in the past month informed the industry that EPA’27 low-NOx regulations will partially go into effect in 2027. In a nutshell, the technology improvements stay, but the costly warranty and useful life extensions are jettisoned. Official word from the EPA is still a few months away.
Investment dollars are scarce amid generationally low for-hire truckload profit margins, but this provides new motivation to prebuy in 2026, for those who have the means. A large prebuy isn’t likely, since private fleets, who have the means, are still managing down excess capacity from overbuying in 2023-2024. Still, this provides a degree of moderation for the 2026 rate outlook.
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Forecasts through 2027 are detailed in the ACT Research Freight Forecast. This service provides in-depth analysis and forecasts for a broad range of U.S. freight measures, including the Cass Freight Index, Cass Truckload Linehaul Index, DAT spot and contract rates by trailer type, LTL, and intermodal price indexes. The monthly report provides monthly, quarterly, and annual predictions for over forty data series over a two- to three-year time horizon, including capacity, volumes, and rates. The ACT Research Freight Forecast is released monthly in conjunction with the Cass Transportation Index report.
How have ACT Research’s freight forecasts performed? Their 2024 forecasts for the Cass Truckload Linehaul Index were 98.8% accurate on average from 18 months out. The Cass Truckload Linehaul Index averaged 139.3 in 2024, precisely in line with our December 2023 estimate.
(As a reminder, ACT Research’s Tim Denoyer writes this report.)
For 2024, ACT’s forecasts for the shipments component of the Cass Freight Index were 95.0% accurate on average for the 18-month forecast period.
Release date: We strive to release our indexes on the 13th of each month. When this falls on a Friday or weekend, our goal is to publish on the next business day.
