The shipments component of the Cass Freight Index was down 0.4% m/m in May.
The trade war is having a variety of effects, with pre-tariff consumer spending still supporting freight demand. The negative consequences of tariff effects are partly reflected in May data, as pre-tariff inventory stocking has started to turn to destocking, and those stocks will start to thin in the coming months.
After rising 13% in 2021 and 0.6% in 2022, the index declined 5.5% in 2023 and 4.1% in 2024. So far, it is trending toward another decline in 2025.
In June, the shipments component of the Cass Freight Index would decline 2% y/y on the normal seasonal pattern.
See the Methodology for the Cass Freight Index
The expenditures component of the Cass Freight Index, which measures the total amount spent on freight, rose 1.4% m/m in May. The y/y gain slowed to 0.8% from 1.2% in April, but held onto a second straight increase after more than two years of declines.
The y/y increase in spending was more than explained by higher rates, as shipments fell 4.0%. We infer that rates—or more specifically, the average cost of a shipment—rose 5.0% y/y in May. One factor in this equation is a higher TL mix and lower LTL mix.
This index includes changes in fuel, modal mix, intramodal mix, and accessorial charges, so is a bit more volatile than the cleaner Cass Truckload Linehaul Index®.
The expenditures component of the Cass Freight Index, after a record 38% surge in 2021 and another 23% increase in 2022, fell 19% in 2023 and 11% in 2024.
The rates embedded in the two components of the Cass Freight Index rose 1.8% m/m in May, and 4.8% SA.
While the 5.0% y/y increase is outpacing most freight markets, mix is always a factor, and mix is currently shifting toward TL from LTL. While this is typically a positive sign of an improving freight cycle, it is currently more likely a head-fake related to pre-tariff shipping.
Based on the normal seasonal pattern, this index would accelerate y/y in June, though a reversion in mix could slow it down. We do not get the sense market rates are accelerating, as the Cass Truckload Linehaul Index confirms.
Cass Inferred Freight Rates are a simple calculation of the Cass Freight Index data—expenditures divided by shipments—producing a data set that explains the overall movement in cost per shipment. The data set is diversified among all modes, with truckload (TL) representing more than half of the dollars, followed by less-than-truckload (LTL), rail, parcel, and so on.
The Cass Truckload Linehaul Index fell 0.8% m/m in May, after a 0.5% decline in April.
This index fell 10% in 2023, another 3.4% in 2024, and is on track for a small increase in 2025.
See the Methodology for the Cass Truckload Linehaul Index
Visibility remains low and highly dependent on policy developments and legal challenges. The uncertainty has lowered the economic outlook, and pre-tariff inventory building will lead to destocking regardless of the outcome of trade negotiations in the coming months.
The effects of tariffs have yet to be fully felt, and although freight rates have started to rise, it is still not enough to offset cost headwinds broadly. The trade war is likely to extend the for-hire freight recession further as higher prices reduce goods affordability and consumers’ real incomes. With the demand outlook choppy, the rate upturn remains elusive, but the equipment cycle is setting up tighter capacity with Class 8 tractor sales falling below replacement this year.
Our forecasts through 2027 are detailed in the ACT Research Freight Forecast. This service provides in-depth analysis and forecasts for a broad range of US freight measures, including the Cass Freight Index, Cass Truckload Linehaul Index, DAT spot and contract rates by trailer type, LTL, and intermodal price indexes. The monthly report provides monthly, quarterly, and annual predictions for over forty data series over a two- to three-year time horizon, including capacity, volumes, and rates. The ACT Research Freight Forecast is released monthly in conjunction with the Cass Transportation Index report.
How have ACT Research’s freight forecasts performed? Their 2024 forecasts for the Cass Truckload Linehaul Index were 98.8% accurate on average from 18 months out. The Cass Truckload Linehaul Index averaged 139.3 in 2024, precisely in line with our December 2023 estimate.
(As a reminder, ACT Research’s Tim Denoyer writes this report.)
For 2024, ACT’s forecasts for the shipments component of the Cass Freight Index were 95.0% accurate on average for the 18-month forecast period.
Release date: We strive to release our indexes on the 13th of each month. When this falls on a Friday or weekend, our goal is to publish on the next business day.
