The shipments component of the Cass Freight Index declined 1.8% in July m/m, and fell 1.7% m/m in seasonally adjusted (SA) terms.
After rising 13% in 2021 and 0.6% in 2022, the index declined 5.5% in 2023 and 4.1% in 2024, and so far, is trending toward another considerable decline in 2025.
In August, the shipments component of the Cass Freight Index would decline 8% y/y on the normal seasonal pattern, but may decline less given the recent rise in imports.
See the Methodology for the Cass Freight Index
The expenditures component of the Cass Freight Index, which measures the total amount spent on freight, fell 1.5% m/m in July. The y/y gain slowed to 0.4% from 2.6% in June, marking the fourth straight increase after more than two years of declines.
The y/y increase was more than explained by higher rates, as shipments fell 6.9% in July. We infer rates rose 7.9% y/y, largely due to changing modal mix, similar to the past several months, with more truckloads and lower LTL mix.
The expenditures component of the Cass Freight Index, after a record 38% surge in 2021 and another 23% increase in 2022, fell 19% in 2023 and 11% in 2024.
The rates embedded in the two components of the Cass Freight Index rose 0.3% m/m in July, and 1.1% SA.
Based on the normal seasonal pattern, this index would accelerate y/y in August, though a reversion in mix could slow it down. We do not get the sense market rates are accelerating, as the Cass Truckload Linehaul Index confirms.
Cass Inferred Freight Rates are a simple calculation of the Cass Freight Index data—expenditures divided by shipments—producing a data set that explains the overall movement in cost per shipment. The data set is diversified among all modes, with truckload (TL) representing more than half of the dollars, followed by less-than-truckload (LTL), rail, parcel, and so on.
The Cass Truckload Linehaul Index fell 0.6% m/m in July, after a 0.4% increase in June.
This index fell 10% in 2023, another 3.4% in 2024, and after a 1.3% increase in 1H’25, is on track for a small increase in 2025.
See the Methodology for the Cass Truckload Linehaul Index
Freight volumes are experiencing one of the air pockets we’ve warned about in recent months. We expect more to come after a reprieve in Q3. However, tariffs are also raising vehicle prices, and heavy truck makers are reducing production. In 2H’25, NA Class 8 production is set to fall more than 25% from 1H’25.
As the economy is likely to absorb the effects of tariffs over the next several months, our freight demand outlook remains cautious. But the silver lining of lower vehicle production and lost manufacturing jobs is that tighter capacity will likely drive freight back to the for-hire market next year.
Forecasts through 2027 are detailed in the ACT Research Freight Forecast. This service provides in-depth analysis and forecasts for a broad range of US freight measures, including the Cass Freight Index, Cass Truckload Linehaul Index, DAT spot and contract rates by trailer type, LTL, and intermodal price indexes. The monthly report provides monthly, quarterly, and annual predictions for over forty data series over a two- to three-year time horizon, including capacity, volumes, and rates. The ACT Research Freight Forecast is released monthly in conjunction with the Cass Transportation Index report.
How have ACT Research’s freight forecasts performed? Their 2024 forecasts for the Cass Truckload Linehaul Index were 98.8% accurate on average from 18 months out. The Cass Truckload Linehaul Index averaged 139.3 in 2024, precisely in line with our December 2023 estimate.
(As a reminder, ACT Research’s Tim Denoyer writes this report.)
For 2024, ACT’s forecasts for the shipments component of the Cass Freight Index were 95.0% accurate on average for the 18-month forecast period.
Release date: We strive to release our indexes on the 13th of each month. When this falls on a Friday or weekend, our goal is to publish on the next business day.
