The shipments component of the Cass Freight Index fell 7.2% m/m in December, or 3.2% m/m in seasonally adjusted (SA) terms, reaching a new cycle low.
The y/y decline in shipments of 7.5% in December was a bit below the full-year decline of 6.1%.
The three winter storms which hit the Midwest in the first two weeks of December slowed the highway network and created some pent-up demand that was still evident in the spot market in the first half of January.
Holiday consumer spending data suggest retail inventories destocked in recent months as freight shipments across modes were below spending trends.
A rebound from the weather could support January volumes above the normal seasonal trend, which otherwise would have the shipments component of the Cass Freight Index® down 5% y/y.
See the Methodology for the Cass Freight Index
The expenditures component of the Cass Freight Index, which measures the total amount spent on freight, fell 1.9% m/m in December. Expenditures were 0.6% below the year-ago level in December, after a 1.2% y/y dip in November.
The flattish results of the past few months were a combination of lower shipments and higher rates. With shipments down considerably more than overall spending, we can infer higher freight costs.
The expenditures component of the Cass Freight Index, after a record 38% surge in 2021 and another 23% increase in 2022, fell 19% in 2023 and 11% in 2024. In 2025, the index declined by 0.5%.
The Cass Truckload Linehaul Index rose 1.0% m/m in December, after a 0.1% increase in November.
This index fell 10% in 2023, another 3.4% in 2024, and turned up to a 1.8% increase in 2025.
See the Methodology for the Cass Truckload Linehaul Index
For-hire volumes were clearly soft in Q4 for a number of reasons. The storms were probably the largest factor in December, but there was also payback from pre-tariff shipping and some ongoing overcapacity in private fleets.
An active winter is freezing out some freight capacity, supporting the strongest run of spot rates in four years in the four weeks through mid-January. The retrenchment has begun in the dry van market, but reefer spot markets remain particularly tight in January.
While the soft volume environment persists, after considerable destocking in Q4’25, we think the Supreme Court decision on IEEPA tariffs could provide a positive catalyst for freight demand.
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Forecasts through 2027 are detailed in the ACT Research Freight Forecast. This service provides in-depth analysis and forecasts for a broad range of U.S. freight measures, including the Cass Freight Index, Cass Truckload Linehaul Index, DAT spot and contract rates by trailer type, LTL, and intermodal price indexes. The monthly report provides monthly, quarterly, and annual predictions for over forty data series over a two- to three-year time horizon, including capacity, volumes, and rates. The ACT Research Freight Forecast is released monthly in conjunction with the Cass Transportation Index report.
How have ACT Research’s freight forecasts performed? Their 2024 forecasts for the Cass Truckload Linehaul Index were 98.8% accurate on average from 18 months out. The Cass Truckload Linehaul Index averaged 139.3 in 2024, precisely in line with our December 2023 estimate.
(As a reminder, ACT Research’s Tim Denoyer writes this report.)
For 2024, ACT’s forecasts for the shipments component of the Cass Freight Index were 95.0% accurate on average for the 18-month forecast period.
Release date: We strive to release our indexes on the 13th of each month. When this falls on a Friday or weekend, our goal is to publish on the next business day.
