The long freight downturn persists, though we note that truckload freight is up in the Cass data, while LTL has declined significantly. Container and intermodal volumes were also up from year-ago levels in August. (As a reminder, the dataset for the Cass Freight Index contains North American domestic freight only.)
See the Methodology for the Cass Freight Index
The expenditures component of the Cass Freight Index, which measures the total amount spent on freight, fell 2.8% m/m in August. Expenditures were 0.4% below the year-ago level in August, after a 0.4% y/y gain in July.
The flattish results of the past two months were a combination of lower shipment volumes and higher rates. We infer that rates (or more specifically, the average cost of a shipment) rose 9.8% y/y, largely due to the mix shift from LTL to truckload, similar to the past several months.
The expenditures component of the Cass Freight Index, after a record 38% surge in 2021 and another 23% increase in 2022, fell 19% in 2023 and 11% in 2024.
The rates embedded in the two components of the Cass Freight Index, from which we derive the average cost of s shipment for all modes, fell 1.3% m/m in August, but rose 0.1% SA.
Based on the normal seasonal pattern, this index would slow to about 7% y/y in September, though a reversion in mix could slow it down further. We do not get the sense market rates are accelerating, as the Cass Truckload Linehaul Index confirms.
Cass Inferred Freight Rates are a simple calculation of the Cass Freight Index data—expenditures divided by shipments—producing a data set that explains the overall movement in cost per shipment. The data set is diversified among all modes, with truckload (TL) representing more than half of the dollars, followed by less-than-truckload (LTL), rail, parcel, and so on.
The Cass Truckload Linehaul Index fell 1.8% m/m in August, after a 0.6% decrease in July.
This index fell 10% in 2023, another 3.4% in 2024, and after a 1.3% increase in 1H’25, is on track for a small increase in 2025.
See the Methodology for the Cass Truckload Linehaul Index
The freight market was nearing balance in late 2024 and early 2025, with rates and volume trends improving. Since the start of the trade war, momentum has slowed sharply. Ongoing volume softness has kept conditions from tightening, and most of the adverse effects of tariffs are still to come.
As the economy is likely to absorb the effects of tariffs over the next several months, our freight demand outlook remains cautious. But the silver lining of lower heavy vehicle production and lost manufacturing jobs is that tighter capacity will likely drive freight back to the for-hire market eventually.
Indeed, we see evidence in the Class 8 order data that suggests the private fleet capacity expansion of the past three years is starting to reverse. Day cabs, which are not exclusive to private fleets but a good proxy, were well above long-term averages as a percentage of Class 8 tractor orders in recent years. But this year, day cab orders have reverted to a below-average proportion of low tractor orders. We think this bodes well for the longer-term for-hire demand outlook.
Forecasts through 2027 are detailed in the ACT Research Freight Forecast. This service provides in-depth analysis and forecasts for a broad range of US freight measures, including the Cass Freight Index, Cass Truckload Linehaul Index, DAT spot and contract rates by trailer type, LTL, and intermodal price indexes. The monthly report provides monthly, quarterly, and annual predictions for over forty data series over a two- to three-year time horizon, including capacity, volumes, and rates. The ACT Research Freight Forecast is released monthly in conjunction with the Cass Transportation Index report.
How have ACT Research’s freight forecasts performed? Their 2024 forecasts for the Cass Truckload Linehaul Index were 98.8% accurate on average from 18 months out. The Cass Truckload Linehaul Index averaged 139.3 in 2024, precisely in line with our December 2023 estimate.
(As a reminder, ACT Research’s Tim Denoyer writes this report.)
For 2024, ACT’s forecasts for the shipments component of the Cass Freight Index were 95.0% accurate on average for the 18-month forecast period.
Release date: We strive to release our indexes on the 13th of each month. When this falls on a Friday or weekend, our goal is to publish on the next business day.
