The shipments component of the Cass Freight Index fell 4.5% y/y but rose 3.0% m/m in March, building on a 10.4% m/m gain in February.
In seasonally adjusted (SA) terms, shipments rose 1.0% m/m after a 4.3% m/m gain in February, increasing the chances of a 2H recovery. At the March SA rate, this index would rise 1.5% y/y in 2H’26.
While this index is starting to catch up with other indicators, the significant less-than-truckload (LTL) mix likely explains why it’s behind. Tightness in dry van truckload (TL) conditions is starting to radiate to other markets, so far mainly reefer and flatbed TL, but eventually this tightness will drive demand in LTL and intermodal as well.
The normal seasonal trend would put the shipments component of the Cass Freight Index down 5% y/y in April.
See the Methodology for the Cass Freight Index
The expenditures component of the Cass Freight Index, which measures the total amount spent on freight, rose 4.2% y/y in March, accelerating from a 2.1% gain in February.
The acceleration was due to the m/m improvement in shipments.
In SA terms, the index rose 2.4% m/m in March, after a 0.3% m/m increase in February.
The expenditures component of the Cass Freight Index, after a record 38% surge in 2021 and another 23% increase in 2022, fell 19% in 2023 and 11% in 2024. In 2025, the index declined by 0.5%.
The Cass Truckload Linehaul Index fell 0.5% m/m in March, after a 0.2% increase in February.
Truckload rates rose 1.8% y/y in March, after a 2.2% rise in February, and gained 3.4% over two years ago, a little slower than the past two months. Downward pressure as capacity recovered from winter weather was mostly offset by capacity tightening due to higher diesel prices.
Volumes are beginning to recover, but it is mainly supply constraints supporting higher rates, in our view, as equipment capacity is contracting, and we’ve recently re-entered a driver shortage.
This index reflects the whole for-hire market, both spot and contract rates.
The Cass Truckload Linehaul Index fell 10% in 2023, another 3.4% in 2024, and turned up to a 1.8% increase in 2025.
See the Methodology for the Cass Truckload Linehaul Index
Although spot truckload rates have been rising significantly for four months, it will take time for this to translate into higher contract rates. Considerable increases in contract rates are likely for the truckload market. After a four-year bottoming phase of the for-hire cycle, we believe we’ve moved to the early cycle phase where capacity becomes short and rates rise.
Supply-Led Cycle. In addition to new Class 8 tractor sales below levels needed to sustain the fleet since last year, our survey of medium and large fleets suggests we recently entered a driver shortage, the third in the past decade. The new nondomicile CDL rules took effect in mid-March, and effects of several rule changes are weighing on the driver market. Driver availability is a key component of capacity in the market, and additional scarcity seems likely, supporting higher freight rates. The past two rate cycles started around the time the ACT For-Hire Driver Availability Index fell below 40, and this index tightened 4.8 points, to 35.0 in March from 39.8 in February.
ACT Research’s forecasts through 2028 are detailed in the Freight Forecast. This service provides in-depth analysis and forecasts for a broad range of US freight measures, including the Cass Freight Index, Cass Truckload Linehaul Index, DAT spot and contract rates by trailer type, LTL, and intermodal price indexes. We provide monthly, quarterly, and annual predictions for over forty data series over a two- to three-year time horizon, including capacity, volumes, and rates. The ACT Research Freight Forecast is released monthly in conjunction with the Cass Transportation Index report.
The ACT Research Freight Forecast now predicts 80 distinct data series covering TL, LTL, and intermodal volumes and rates, and we’re adding more. Rather than argue over precision, which in this industry can change quickly on wars or weather events, please see this one-page monthly summary, from 2.5 years ago. We think it will help you understand why our supply-side perspective is helpful for planning, strategy, and forecasting.
(As a reminder, ACT Research’s Tim Denoyer writes this report.)
Release date: We strive to release our indexes on the 13th of each month. When this falls on a Friday or weekend, our goal is to publish on the next business day.
