The shipments component of the Cass Freight Index fell 4.1% y/y and 3.1% m/m in June.
In seasonally adjusted (SA) terms, shipments fell 2.9% m/m, reversing most of the year-to-date gains.
To some extent, volumes are still down because capacity is declining, and the glimmers of strong demand visible with double-digit growth in the relatively small domestic intermodal sector are not moving the needle in this more trucking-based index. Higher fuel prices were also a drag on goods demand.
The normal seasonal trend would put the shipments component of the Cass Freight Index down about 3% y/y in June.
See the Methodology for the Cass Freight Index
The expenditures component of the Cass Freight Index, which measures the total amount spent on freight, rose 11.2% y/y in June to 3.64, accelerating from a 7.5% y/y gain in May.
The acceleration was mainly due to rates, while volumes stepped back.
In SA terms, the index has risen m/m for eight straight months, and rose 1.2% m/m in June, after a 4.9% m/m increase in May.
The expenditures component of the Cass Freight Index, after a record 38% surge in 2021 and another 23% increase in 2022, fell 19% in 2023 and 11% in 2024. In 2025, the index declined by 0.5%.
The Cass Truckload Linehaul Index fell to 149.4 in June, down 0.9% m/m, but up 5.5% y/y.
These shipper-sourced rates are not taking off like some leading spot indicators, but should provide a perspective consistent with the broader truckload market, which is still mostly under contract rates.
With many shipper bids taking effect July 1, this is likely a temporary pause in the upward move in truckload rates.
This index reflects the whole for-hire market, both spot and contract rates.
The Cass Truckload Linehaul Index fell 10% in 2023, another 3.4% in 2024, and turned up to a 1.8% increase in 2025.
See the Methodology for the Cass Truckload Linehaul Index
The volume recovery seems delayed by a hopefully brief bout of inflation, and it will take time for the razor thin U.S. savings rate to recover. But fuel prices are falling fast, inventories are tight, tariffs are down, and the U.S. dollar is soft, so a demand recovery remains possible later this year. But for now, tighter supply remains the main reason for accelerating rates.
But the classic truckload market cycle, the early cycle phase, where the industry is today, isn’t typically characterized by strong demand. While volumes still don’t look great, the industry is entering the sweet spot of the cycle, with rates rising, industry earnings starting to improve, and volume growth on the way.
Need more freight market intelligence? The ACT Research Freight Forecast comprehensively covers TL, LTL, and intermodal volumes and rates, with the best quality data sets in the industry. ACT Research forecasts through 2028 are detailed in the Freight Forecast report.
This service provides in-depth analysis and forecasts for a broad range of U.S. freight measures, including the Cass Freight Index, Cass Truckload Linehaul Index, and DAT spot and contract rates by trailer type, with and without fuel. We provide monthly, quarterly, and annual predictions over a two- to three-year time horizon, including capacity, volumes, and rates. The ACT Research Freight Forecast is released monthly in conjunction with the Cass Transportation Index report.
For a sense of forecast accuracy, please see this one-page monthly summary, from mid-2023. While these dynamics have reversed, we think it will help you understand why our supply-side perspective is helpful for planning, strategy, and forecasting.
(As a reminder, ACT Research’s Tim Denoyer writes this report.)
Release date: We strive to release our indexes on the 13th of each month. When this falls on a Friday or weekend, our goal is to publish on the next business day.
