Cass Transportation Index Report August 2024

Get the most up-to-date data and insights into shipping volumes and the cost of freight. See how they change each month and understand the market forces behind them.

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Dog Days 

  August 2024 Year-over-year change 2-year stacked change Month-to-month change Month-to-month change (SA*)
Cass Freight Index - Shipments 1.121 -1.9% -12.3% 1.0% 1.0%
Cass Freight Index - Expenditures 3.147 -9.0% -31.8% -2.0% -1.3%
Cass Inferred Freight Rates 2.807 -7.2% NA -3.0% -2.3%
Truckload Linehaul Index 136.70 -3.3% -14.4% -0.6% NA

 

* SA = seasonally adjusted

Cass Freight Index® - Shipments

The shipments component of the Cass Freight Index rose 1.0% m/m in August, after a 3.0% increase in July.

  • With similar summer seasonality, the index also increased 1.0% m/m in seasonally adjusted (SA) terms from July to August.
  • Shipments declined by 1.9% y/y in August after a 1.1% y/y drop in July.

These were the smallest declines in 18 months as goods demand continues to grow slowly, and slowing capacity additions reduce the pressure on for-hire shipments.

After rising 0.6% in 2022, the index declined 5.5% in 2023. With normal seasonality, the index will fall about 3% y/y in September and 3%-4% for the full year.

 

Cass Freight Index - Shipments - August 2024

 

 

See the Methodology for the Cass Freight Index

 

Cass Freight Index - Expenditures

The expenditures component of the Cass Freight Index, which measures the total amount spent on freight, fell 2.0% m/m in August. Fuel price declines combined with lower market rates, and the 9.0% y/y decline widened from a 6.2% drop in July.

With shipments up 1.0% m/m, we infer the 2.0% m/m decline in expenditures included a m/m decline of 3.0% in rates in August (see our inferred rates data series below).

  • In SA terms, the index fell 1.3% m/m, with shipments up 1.0% and overall rates down 2.3%.  

This index includes changes in fuel, modal mix, intramodal mix, and accessorial charges, so is a bit more volatile than the cleaner Cass Truckload Linehaul Index®.

The expenditures component of the Cass Freight Index fell 19% in 2023, after a record 38% surge in 2021 and another 23% increase in 2022. It declined another 16% in 1H’24, and assuming normal seasonal patterns from here, will decline 11%-12% this year. 

 

 
Cass Freight Index - Expenditures - August 2024

 

 

Inferred Freight Rates

The rates embedded in the two components of the Cass Freight Index declined 7.2% y/y in August, after a 5.2% y/y drop in July.

  • On a m/m basis, Cass Inferred Freight Rates™ fell 3.0% m/m in July (2.3% SA), reaching a new cycle low with the help of falling diesel prices.  
  • Based on the normal seasonal pattern, the y/y decline in this index in September will narrow back to about 5%.
  • The normal seasonal pattern from here would leave inferred rates down 8% in 2024, after a 14% drop in 2023.

 

 

Cass Inferred Freight Rates August 2024

 

Cass Inferred Freight Rates are a simple calculation of the Cass Freight Index data—expenditures divided by shipments—producing a data set that explains the overall movement in cost per shipment. The data set is diversified among all modes, with truckload (TL) representing more than half of the dollars, followed by less-than-truckload (LTL), rail, parcel, and so on.

 

Download the Data

Truckload Linehaul Index

The Cass Truckload Linehaul Index fell 0.6% m/m in August, a fourth straight monthly decline as the soft market balance persists and overcapacity keeps bids highly competitive.

  • The y/y decline of 3.3% widened slightly from 3.2% in July. While this has narrowed from a 15% y/y decline a year ago, it seems unlikely to turn positive quickly.
  • As a broad truckload market indicator, this index includes both spot and contract freight. With spot rates steady over the past year, downward pressure on the larger contract market is lessening, but recent slight increases in spot rates are not yet enough to turn contract rates higher. 


Cass Truckload Linehaul Index August 2024

 

See the Methodology for the Cass Truckload Linehaul Index

 

Freight Expectations

This month, the ACT Research Freight Forecast delves into the implications of the U.S. election season for freight markets. Most of the insights are reserved for subscribers, but note that elevated near-term uncertainty and slowing industrial activity are normal short-term features of presidential elections. Almost regardless of the outcome, some combination of near-term softness and post-election relief recovery in freight demand is thus likely.

We generally strive to base our outlook on industry economics, rather than politics, though we incorporate regulations, which are currently a major factor dragging out the cycle downturn and affecting the outlook. But in a regulated industry, no strategy worth its salt can avoid election implications right now, so this month’s report grabs political lightning rods from tariffs to price controls to, yes, EPA regulations, and makes bold predictions about what to expect this election season and beyond.

Our outlook through 2026 is detailed in the ACT Research Freight Forecast. This service provides in-depth analysis and forecasts for a broad range of U.S. freight measures, including the Cass Freight Index, Cass Truckload Linehaul Index, DAT spot and contract rates by trailer type, LTL, and intermodal price indexes. We provide monthly, quarterly, and annual predictions for over forty data series over a two- to three-year time horizon, including capacity, volumes, and rates. The ACT Research Freight Forecast is released monthly in conjunction with the Cass Transportation Index report.

How have ACT Research’s freight forecasts performed? For 2023, ACT’s forecasts for the shipments component of the Cass Freight Index were 96.9% accurate on average for the 24-month forecast period. 

(As a reminder, ACT Research’s Tim Denoyer writes this report.)

 

 
ACT Forecast Accuracy 2023 Shipments

 

 

ACT Research’s 2023 forecasts for the Cass Truckload Linehaul Index were 96.6% accurate on average over the past 24 months, and 98.5% accurate over the past 12 months. The Cass Truckload Linehaul Index averaged 143.8 in 2023, precisely in line with our July 2023 estimate. 

 

 
ACT Forecast Accuracy 2023 Cass TL LH Index

 

 

Release date: We strive to release our indexes on the 13th of each month. When this falls on a Friday or weekend, our goal is to publish on the next business day.

Tim Denoyer head

About the Author: Tim Denoyer, ACT Research

Tim Denoyer joined ACT Research in 2017 after spending fifteen years in equity research focused primarily on the transportation, machinery, and automotive industries. Tim is a senior analyst leading ACT’s transportation research effort and the primary author of the ACT Freight Forecast, U.S. Rate and Volume OUTLOOK. Research associate, Carter Vieth, who joined ACT in early 2020 after graduating from Indiana University, also contributes to the report. This report provides supply-chain professionals with better visibility on the future of pricing and volume in trucking, the core of the $1.2 trillion US freight transportation industry, including TL, LTL, and intermodal. 

Tim also contributes to ACT’s core Classes 4-8 commercial vehicle (CV) data analysis and forecasting; powertrain development, such as electrification analysis; and used truck valuation and forecasting. Tim has supported or led numerous project-based market studies on behalf of clients in his six years with ACT on topics ranging from upcoming emissions and environmental regulations to alternative powertrain cost analyses, to e-commerce and last-mile logistics, to autonomous freight market sizing.  

ACT’s freight research service leverages its expertise in the supply-side economics of transportation and draws upon Tim’s background as an investment analyst, beginning at Prudential and Bear Stearns. Tim was a co-founder of Wolfe Research, one of the leading equity research firms in the investment industry. His experience also includes responsibility for covering the industrial sector of the global equity markets, including with leading investment management company Balyasny Asset Management.

Disclaimer

The material contained herein is intended as general industry commentary. The Cass Freight Index, Cass Truckload Linehaul Index (“Indexes”), and other content are based upon information that we consider reliable, but Cass does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness, reliability, continued availability or completeness of any information or underlying assumptions, and Cass shall have no liability for any errors, omissions or interruptions. Any data on past performance contained in the Indexes is no guarantee as to future performance. The Indexes and other content are not intended to predict actual results, and no assurances are given with respect thereto. Cass makes no warranty, express or implied. Opinions expressed herein as to the Indexes are those of ACT Research and may differ from those of Cass Information Systems Inc. All opinions and estimates are given as of the date hereof and are subject to change.

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