The shipments component of the Cass Freight Index rose 0.4% in April m/m.
The trade war is having a variety of effects on freight volumes, with significant decreases likely in May and June in international volumes, but likely a rebound in Q3 due to the recent 90-day U.S./China trade deal. Meanwhile, U.S. consumers are still largely buying pre-tariff goods, though retailers will soon start to run out of these.
Volumes may also be temporarily supported in the coming months as consumers scoop up pre-tariff goods before prices go up.
After rising 13% in 2021 and 0.6% in 2022, the index declined 5.5% in 2023 and 4.1% in 2024. So far, the Cass shipments index is trending toward another decline in 2025.
In May, the shipments component of the Cass Freight Index would decline 1% y/y on the normal seasonal pattern.
See the Methodology for the Cass Freight Index
The expenditures component of the Cass Freight Index, which measures the total amount spent on freight, rose 3.3% m/m in April. March's 2.0% y/y decline turned to a positive 1.2%, the first increase in 28 months.
This y/y increase in spending was more than explained by higher rates, as shipments fell 3.6%. We infer rates rose 5.1% y/y in April.
This index includes changes in fuel, modal mix, intramodal mix, and accessorial charges, so it is a bit more volatile than the cleaner Cass Truckload Linehaul Index®, which isolates linehaul rates.
The expenditures component of the Cass Freight Index, after a record 38% surge in 2021 and another 23% increase in 2022, fell 19% in 2023 and 11% in 2024.
The rates embedded in the two components of the Cass Freight Index rose 2.9% m/m in April, and 1.8% m/m SA.
Year over year, While the 5.1% increase is up from 3.5% in March and outpacing most freight markets, mix is always a factor, and the trend is consistent with gradually increasing rates across freight modes.
Based on the normal seasonal pattern, this index would be flat y/y in May and is trending toward a small increase for 2025.
Cass Inferred Freight Rates are a simple calculation of the Cass Freight Index data—expenditures divided by shipments—producing a data set that explains the overall movement in cost per shipment. The data set is diversified among all modes, with truckload (TL) representing more than half of the dollars, followed by less-than-truckload (LTL), rail, parcel, and so on.
The Cass Truckload Linehaul Index fell 0.5% m/m in April, after a 0.1% decline in March.
This index fell 10% in 2023 and another 3% in 2024. Where it will go in 2025 is a big question.
See the Methodology for the Cass Truckload Linehaul Index
It’s been 40 months since the first y/y decline in shipments this cycle, and as the freight market downturn wears on, fleets are not particularly well-positioned to weather an even longer storm. So, it’s significant that expenditures turned positive for the first time in 28 months, but we wouldn’t suggest it’ll be smooth sailing from here.
The sample of for-hire TL fleets in the chart below includes many of the biggest and best-run fleets in the U.S. If they’re struggling, the industry at large is on life support. The public TL fleets’ net margins hit a 15-year low in Q1 at just 2.4%.
Although freight rates have started to rise, it is still not enough to offset carriers' cost headwinds broadly. The trade war is likely to extend the for-hire freight recession as higher prices reduce goods affordability and consumers’ real incomes. With the demand outlook choppy, it's not clear when the transportation industry's finances will turn up.
Our forecasts through 2027 are detailed in the ACT Research Freight Forecast. This service provides in-depth analysis and forecasts for a broad range of US freight measures, including the Cass Freight Index, Cass Truckload Linehaul Index, DAT spot and contract rates by trailer type, LTL, and intermodal price indexes. The monthly report provides monthly, quarterly, and annual predictions for over forty data series over a two- to three-year time horizon, including capacity, volumes, and rates. The ACT Research Freight Forecast is released monthly in conjunction with the Cass Transportation Index report.
How have ACT Research’s freight forecasts performed? Their 2024 forecasts for the Cass Truckload Linehaul Index were 98.8% accurate on average from 18 months out. The Cass Truckload Linehaul Index averaged 139.3 in 2024, precisely in line with our December 2023 estimate.
(As a reminder, ACT Research’s Tim Denoyer writes this report.)
For 2024, ACT’s forecasts for the shipments component of the Cass Freight Index were 95.0% accurate on average for the 18-month forecast period.
Release date: We strive to release our indexes on the 13th of each month. When this falls on a Friday or weekend, our goal is to publish on the next business day.
