Topics: Carrier Newsletter
42-Month Shipments Downturn Finally Ends
The Sun Also Rises is a fitting headline for the latest Cass Transportation Index report. The shipments component of the Cass Freight Index rose 5.6% month over month and 2.1% year over year in August, marking the first year-over-year gain since January 2023 and the end of a 42-month downturn, the longest on record.
The Cass Truckload Linehaul Index shot up 11.3% year over year in August, the largest increase since June 2022. Expenditures, including fuel, surged 18.7% year over year as diesel prices jumped 46% year over year and 10% sequentially.
“With economic growth strong even amid a soft job market, and a restock likely beginning with ocean volumes rising and tariff refunds happening, the bottom is probably in. While likely modest, freight growth should continue,” wrote Tim Denoyer of ACT Research, which releases its Freight Forecast monthly in conjunction with the latest Cass Freight Index.
Our monthly news roundup is also a resource to keep industry stakeholders abreast of the latest developments in the trucking industry. This month we’re looking at spot rates, tonnage, AI, diesel prices, truck orders, legislation, and driver pay.
Spot Rates Rise, But So Do Questions About Demand
Dry van spot linehaul rates paid to carriers averaged $2.20 per mile the week ending September 12, 34.2% higher year over year and 21% above the nine-year seasonal average of $1.81 per mile, according to DAT Freight & Analytics data.
Dean Croke, DAT’s principal analyst, said “relentless input-cost inflation” as well as a growing list of tariffs has led to “a fear that higher prices eventually erode consumer purchasing power and soften end demand.”
Croke cited a metals manufacturing executive who described “demand as a seesaw and their own ability to forecast as shrinking.”
“For truckload, that reads as a market where freight is steady but choppy and hard to plan around: consistent volume from industrial and infrastructure shippers, set against a growing question mark over the consumer-goods replenishment cycle that fills dry vans,” Croke wrote in his dry van report. “Worth noting, freight itself sits on ISM’s list of commodities rising in price for a sixth straight month, a reminder that in a sideways-demand market, it’s capacity discipline, not a demand surge, doing the work on rates.”
XPO, ArcBest Report Tonnage Growth in August
XPO’s LTL tonnage per day rose 3.7% year over year in August. Although weight per shipment declined 1.8%, shipments per day grew 5.7% year over year.
ArcBest’s daily tonnage climbed 9% year over year in August. Weight per shipment increased 14%, while shipment per day declined 4%. ArcBest cited “changes in freight profile” for the results.
In its Asset-Light segment, ArcBest saw a 26% jump in revenue per shipment year over year while shipments per day held study. ArcBest attributed the revenue increase to a stronger pricing environment, including the effects of higher fuel surcharge revenue and tightening truckload capacity.
McLeod Says AI Will Help Carriers Control Costs
McLeod Software CEO Tom McLeod advised customers to maintain rate discipline as trucking costs continue to rise.
Reporting from McLeod’s user conference, the Commercial Carrier Journal said the company founder pointed to diesel fuel prices at about $6 per gallon and American Transportation Research Institute data showing trucking’s cost per mile has steadily risen from $1.65 in 2020 to $2.34 in 2025.
McLeod said “getting involved” with AI will be an avenue for carriers and brokers to improve efficiencies and lower costs.
Doug Schrier, McLeod’s senior vice president of strategy and partnerships, said he expects that “what we’ll see with rating intelligence is injection of AI. We’ll also see the acceleration of market insights.”
Schrier said AI will play a role in advanced performance comparison tools to make it easier to identify areas of improvement within operations.
J.B. Hunt Finding Operational Efficiencies With AI
J.B. Hunt is leaning on AI to streamline its customer-support processes.
Overroute’s technology was integrated into J.B. Hunt’s existing systems to read live data and support operators in managing customer communications without requiring them to change tools or workflows, Trucking Dive reported.
“Overroute is an example of a broader strategy where we’re using AI as a force multiplier within our expansive network to reduce friction and improve how freight gets executed every day,” J.B. Hunt COO Nick Hobbs said.
Price of Diesel Fuel Hits New High
The average weekly retail diesel price reported September 14 by the Energy Information Administration hit a record $6.285 per gallon, up 31.8 cents week over week and 68.1% year over year.
“We’re starting to see carriers become very concerned and quite restless about where things are going,” DAT’s Croke said.
Trucking Dive said carriers are also feeling pressure from “sluggish consumer demand across broad sectors and federal regulatory pressures over immigrant driver credentials and driving school safety compliance. Collectively, these forces are leaving the industry with less freight and fewer carriers to haul it.”
Truck Orders Reflect Seasonal Slowdown
Class 8 truck orders shifted downward in August to 18,200 units, a 19% decline from July, but still a 42% jump from a year ago.
FTR attributed the decline to seasonality, the end of the 2026 order period, and the conclusion of the EPA 2027 NOx pre-buy.
Still, 2026 orders are far ahead of last year’s pace. Through August, Class 8 orders are up 111% compared to 2025.
“Demand for new equipment remains strong, supported by meaningfully improved freight rates,” ACT Research’s Carter Vieth said. “While largely driven by severe contractions in the driver supply earlier this year, the Montgomery SCOTUS decision, stricter ELD/HOS rule enforcement, and new carrier registration rules have also added to supply constraints and rate improvement through 2026.”
Bipartisan Legislation Targets Fraudulent Carriers
A bipartisan bill in Congress is taking aim at chameleon carriers. The Registration Enforcement for Vehicle Operations of Known Evaders (REVOKE) Act, introduced by Rep. Dave Taylor, R-Ohio, and Rep. Shomari Figures, D-Ala., would strengthen the authority of the U.S. Department of Transportation and Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration to prevent chameleon carriers from exploiting USDOT registration systems to illegally operate.
“Every commercial vehicle on our nation’s highways should be operated by a driver who is following the rules, not a bad actor hiding behind inactive or illegitimate USDOT numbers,” Taylor said. “The REVOKE Act will give the Department of Transportation the tools it needs to shut down this dangerous practice, keep unqualified and unsafe operators off American roads, and prevent needless tragedies caused by reckless and unqualified CDL drivers.”
The American Trucking Associations supports the legislation, saying the bill “would enhance FMCSA’s enforcement actions by cracking down on carriers seeking to operate under inactive USDOT numbers.”
Carriers Attract Drivers With Pay Hikes, Home Time
St. Cloud, Minnesota-based Anderson Trucking Service announced in early September that it was awarding drivers a 16.7% pay rate increase. Pay for current employees and new hires was increased from 60 cents per mile to 70 cents. The company said pay rates could reach up to 72 cents per mile based on years of service.
The company said the pay hike was designed to align its driver earnings with the current freight market. “It’s important that we continue supporting them with stronger earning opportunities,” said Lars Offerdahl, Anderson’s carrier VP of van operations.
Alabama-based McElroy Truck Lines is also focusing on its drivers.
Cody McElroy, grandson of the flatbed carrier’s founder, said on a recent Friday, about 85% of the company’s drivers were home by 5 p.m.
“The driver we attract is looking for a job in trucking, but they also value their home time,” said Cody. “The driver we attract is here because they want to have consistent home time they can count on. They don’t have to worry. They know what our schedule is. There is no question. They know it. We’ve been doing this for so long that this is really our name in the business.”
McElroy also focuses its recruitment efforts on new CDL school graduates. “We take a guy who has never driven a truck except for his road test for his CDL and turn them into a professional in seven weeks,” McElroy said.
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