We’ve almost made it through the first half of 2025. It’s been a bumpy ride, and carriers have had to adapt to fluctuating market conditions. Carriers no doubt will have to continue to roll with the punches through the rest of the year, as many forecasters expect continued bumpiness.
Whether the road ahead is smooth or filled with potholes, Cass Information Systems is there for carriers. We are committed to keeping carriers fully informed, so in this newsletter, we are sharing the varied outlooks for the remainder of 2025.
Analysts: Freight Market Nearing a Bottom
Analysts said in early June that truckload and LTL dynamics are showing “several attributes that suggest the bottom is near.” And they believe the stage is set for “carriers to assert a little pricing power in the quarters ahead,” according to FleetOwner.
Stifel analysts wrote in a note to investors that they “believe tariff changes played a minimal role in rates moving higher in recent weeks. But the price action corroborates our view of a market nearing equilibrium — and one with rates primed to inflect along sustainable demand improvement.”
FleetOwner reported that Goldman Sachs analysts said of the LTL market that the Yellow Corp. bankruptcy “has helped reduce capacity enough to the point where the sector is set to enter its next upcycle with fewer trucks than it had going into the last one. That, they added, will produce good margins on the incremental business.”
Still, the bounce off the bottom may take a while.
“The more bullish, or those manifesting an end to a long and arduous freight cycle, have begun looking at the truckload group as a high torque vector to an upcycle. Historically, they would be right, we think,” the Stifel analysts said. “But we also think this upcycle will be slower to play out than those in recent memory, with more demand risk and residual supply being a bigger factor.”
CSCMP Says Freight Margins Will Shrink Again
“Fleet margins are likely to be squeezed even tighter in 2025,” Transport Topics said of the overarching message in the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals’ (CSCMP) latest State of Logistics Report.
CSCMP doesn’t expect spot or contract rates — or demand — to rebound this year, while costs are projected to rise.
The report put much of the blame on the Trump administration’s tariff policies and carriers’ resulting aversion to risk. Transport Topics said the report cited the “escalating geopolitical tensions and new trade policies” that dashed hopes for an increase in freight rates.
The CSCMP also expects freight demand to stagnate without increased manufacturing activity or consumer spending.
“I’m hoping 2026 is the year we see an uptick in transportation activity,” Korhan Acar, the lead author of the report, told Transport Topics.
OOIDA Sees Flatbed, Reefer Spike as Only Seasonal
Some freight market indicators turned positive in May — but only because of seasonal fluctuations, according to the Owner-Operator Independent Drivers Association (OOIDA) Foundation.
Seasonal increases in the flatbed and reefer markets were credited with the Total Spot Market Cycle Indicator turning positive for the first time in 32 months. Overall, however, the foundation’s May freight market update showed volume and demand were weakening and capacity was loosening.
“Don’t let this chart fool you,” the foundation said.
Land Line reported that North American freight volumes, from the Cass Feight Index data pointed to one repercussion of the trade war: an extension of the trucking recession.
“Higher prices reduce goods affordability and consumers’ real incomes,” the Cass report said. “With the demand outlook choppy, it’s not clear when the transportation industry’s finances will turn up.”
DOT Takes Aim at ‘Burdensome’ Regulations
The U.S. Department of Transportation is taking action to rescind or amend 52 “burdensome regulations that do not enhance safety.”
Among the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA) requirements that could be rescinded are for:
- ELD operator’s manual in commercial motor vehicles (CMVs).
- Commercial driver’s license holders to self-report motor vehicle violations to their states of residence.
- CMVs to be equipped with spare fuses.
- Rear impact guards to be labeled with a certification from the manufacturer.
- Retroreflective sheeting on trailers manufactured prior to December 1, 1993.
ATA Supports Staged Accident Task Force
The American Trucking Associations (ATA) said it supports a Georgia congressman’s campaign against staged accident fraud schemes involving trucks.
Rep. Mike Collins, R-Ga., is urging the Trump administration to form a task force to investigate and prosecute staged accidents. He also is the co-sponsor of the Staged Accident Fraud Prevention Act, which would make staging accidents a federal crime.
“When con artists seeking a big payday intentionally collide with commercial motor vehicles, their reckless disregard for safety puts innocent truck drivers and the motoring public at risk. These unscrupulous individuals perpetuate their selfish actions by filing frivolous lawsuits against honest trucking companies, raising costs for consumer goods and inflating insurance premiums,” Henry Hanscom, ATA’s senior vice president of legislative affairs, said.
Coalition Opposes Truck Weight Increase
Representatives of the Coalition Against Bigger Trucks were in Washington in early June to tell members of Congress they do not want the truck weight limit to be raised from 80,000 pounds.
They argue that bigger and heavier trucks are more likely to crash and shorten the lifespans of roads and bridges. The coalition released a study in March that said increasing the truck weight limit from 80,000 pounds to 91,000 pounds would put more than 82,000 bridges at risk.
OOIDA also opposes increasing the weight limit. “Some shippers, large carriers, and specific industries continue to claim increasing truck size and weight is good for trucking,” OOIDA Executive Vice President Lewie Pugh told a House subcommittee earlier this year. “Make no mistake, these are losing propositions for truckers and highway safety.”
Class 8 Truck Orders Rebound in May
North American Class 8 net orders in May increased 40% month over month — but were still down 47% from May 2024. And the 12,000 units ordered was still significantly below the seven-year May average of 18,319, the Commercial Carrier Journal reported.
FTR Transportation Intelligence said the May bump may have been the result of the pause on tariffs. Despite the May gain, Class 8 net orders in 2025 are down 32% year over year.
Carter Vieth, an ACT Research analyst, expects Class 8 truck orders to remain slow because of the continuing trade uncertainty.
“Improvement, if any, likely won’t reveal itself until the opening of 2026 order boards in Q3 of this year,” Vieth said.
J.B. Hunt Launches Intermodal Service in Mexico
J.B. Hunt Transport Services, BNSF Railway, and GMXT have launched an intermodal offering for businesses in Mexico needing just-in-time service.
J.B. Hunt said in the announcement that the Quantum de Mexico service will provide the consistency, agility, and speed needed to transport sensitive highway freight using rail, meeting customers’ just-in-time freight needs.
GMXT is the largest rail provider in Mexico.
The service, which will operate on key routes connecting major cities and industrial hubs in both Mexico and the United States, reportedly will provide real-time visibility and control over shipments, minimizing delays. Features will include priority drayage and railcar loading and unloading.
“Mode conversion is one of the leading opportunities businesses can leverage in today’s economic environment to drive efficiency and cost savings,” Spencer Frazier, J.B. Hunt’s executive vice president of sales and marketing, said. “The collaboration … brings the full suite of our industry-leading intermodal service and its unmatched service excellence, scale and capacity to Mexico, building on the innovative success of a 35-year relationship.”
Daimler Recalls More Than 21,000 Trucks
Daimler Truck North America is recalling 21,560 Western Star trucks because of a fire risk.
According to a National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) letter, there is a potential short circuit issue because of an incorrectly installed battery connection in certain 2021-2026 model 47X trucks and 2020-2026 model 49X vehicles.
“Drivers may experience a slow or no crank when starting their vehicle,” Daimler said in its recall report. “Driver may visually observe corrosion present around the stud and/or cable lug.”
Free repairs will be made through Daimler North America-authorized service facilities, and a remedy program is in development.
Carriers, Shippers Sign Up to Test Heavy-Duty EVs
C.H. Robinson Worldwide, DHL Supply Chain, Ikea, and Electrolux Group have joined the Smart Freight Centre coalition to test long-haul heavy-duty battery-electric vehicles on the Interstate 10 corridor between Los Angeles and El Paso, Texas.
Smart Freight Centre is focused on establishing a unified industry approach to accelerate the deployment of long-haul electric trucking. Other coalition members include AIT Worldwide Logistics, Maersk, Microsoft, and PepsiCo.
Coalition members said joining the nonprofit will help them advance their freight sustainability goals and reduce fleet emissions. Ikea, for example, has a goal to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from transport by 70% by 2030.
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