Despite severe weather in much of the country and geopolitical tensions around the world in February, shipments in the for-hire market rose 10.4% month over month and expenditures climbed 5.1%, according to the latest Cass Freight Index.
“After 3.5 years of capacity contraction in the for-hire market, rates have begun a supply-driven recovery, even amid soft freight demand,” ACT Research’s Tim Denoyer wrote in the Cass Transportation Report for February.
This month, we’re monitoring an increase in Class 8 orders, truckload rates, and carrier costs, as well as the fight against fraudulent carriers and cargo theft, and more.
FTR’s preliminary data showed Class 8 orders in February jumped 159% year over year to 47,200 units, a 47% leap from January.
February was the strongest month for Class 8 orders since September 2022, according to FTR, which said February also was the third straight month of year-over-year order growth of at least 20%.
“Order patterns increasingly suggest a structured replacement cycle and forward-looking fleet planning rather than short-term catch-up buying, underscoring healthier underlying demand,” Dan Moyer, FTR’s senior analyst for commercial vehicles, said.
The National Motor Freight Traffic Association (NMFTA) has launched an online platform as part of the fight against freight fraud.
The Freight Fraud Prevention Hub is designed to help carriers, shippers, and logistics providers become better educated in detecting and preventing freight fraud. It includes tools for identifying fraudulent carriers and impersonation risks.
“As freight fraud continues to rise across the industry, education and verification are critical,” Joe Ohr, the NMFTA’s chief operating officer, said. “The Hub reflects the industry’s commitment to protecting the integrity of carrier identification and supporting the entire supply chain with clear, actionable resources.”
The NMFTA also has introduced SCAC Verified to strengthen carrier identity tools.
“The Standard Carrier Alpha Code (SCAC) has long served as a trusted common identifier across the transportation sector. However, as fraud tactics have matured, a gap has become apparent in the verification process for non-Class 8 SCAC applications. Fraud becomes far more likely when onboarding and tendering decisions rely on insufficient tools for verification of legitimacy. NMFTA recognized this gap and has developed a way to address it,” Ohr said.
Non-Class 8 carriers are now issued SCACs through the Verified portal, which uses enhanced verification processes.
After six consecutive years of record-breaking cargo theft levels, another 13% year-over-year increase is forecast for 2026.
“When it comes to product targeting, I’m monitoring TikTok to see what products are going viral there, and that’s going to inform me for what products are going to be increased in targeting through cargo theft,” Danny Ramon, Overhaul’s intelligence and response manager, said on The 10-44 podcast. “Beyond that, these folks are very agile. They can change targets at a moment’s notice, and they are very aware of consumer trends and consumer desires. Their No. 1 targeting factor is now how quickly can they rid themselves of the evidence? How quickly can they convert the cargo into cash? And price density will always be a factor, but the No. 1 factor now is how in demand it is and how quickly they can turn this stolen cargo into a payday.”
He said electronics and food and beverages were major theft targets in 2025, and California was the top state for cargo theft.
“One of the biggest vulnerabilities that was exploited by strategic cargo thieves in 2025 was the use of ink and paper BOLs, which it’s a little bit dated for our industry to by and large be running on ink and paper. But there’s reasons for that. Our supply chain is very fractured and fragmented. Nobody’s running on the same systems, so trying to get everybody on the same sort of digital page is going to be very difficult to begin with. And when folks do implement systems, again, those systems are not going to be universally adopted somewhere along that chain,” Ramon said.
The Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA) announced it will aggressively inactivate USDOT numbers and revoke motor carrier (MC) operating authorities determined to be part of unauthorized sales, rentals, or leases.
The move is part of a crackdown on chameleon carriers. USDOT numbers and MC operating authorities cannot be sold or transferred outside of legitimate corporate transactions.
The Commercial Carrier Journal (CCJ) compared a USDOT number to a driver’s license in that it “identifies exactly who is behind the wheel of a business.” While operating authorities used to be transferred frequently, that has become increasingly rare.
“While the FMCSA may still record a transfer during a legitimate corporate merger—provided safety management and controls remain the same—it warns that failing to update records or apply for new authority will trigger revocation proceedings,” the CCJ said.
The weekly national average diesel price on March 9 was $4.859 per gallon, the largest week-over-week increase by nearly 22 cents.
Avery Vise, FTR’s vice president of trucking, said the cost-per-mile impact went up “nearly 14 cents in a week to more than 69 cents.” He added that a meaningful reversal seems unlikely as the conflict in Iran continues.
“We’re looking at an extended period of time, probably, where diesel prices are substantially higher than they were three weeks ago,” Vise said in mid-March.
The fourth quarter of 2025 was a tough one for some major carriers.
Covenant Logistics reported a big income drop in Q4, plunging from positive $6.7 million in 2024 to negative $18 million in Q4 2025.
Forward Air also reported a bigger income loss, with President and CEO Shawn Stewart citing “less than favorable freight market conditions.” Forward Air’s Q4 income loss worsened from negative $35.4 million in 2024 to minus $36.4 million in 2025.
Heartland Express saw its income plummet from negative $1.9 million in Q4 2024 to minus $19.4 million in 2025.
Although Knight-Swift Holdings’ Q4 income dropped from $69.5 million in 2024 to negative $6.8 million in 2025, CEO Adam Miller expects capacity to continue to tighten, “leading to a healthier market where carriers can recover cost inflation and restore margins.”
Trucking Dive’s conclusion from recent investor conferences and supply chain-related podcasts was that “executives from some leading U.S. trucking firms appear optimistic that demand may be showing signs of turning the corner.”
Speaking at the Barclays Industrial Select Conference in mid-February, Ryder System Chairman and CEO Robert Sanchez said the Purchasing Managers’ Index moving above 50% “is always a good thing.”
“That helps manufacturing [and] should help the freight market. Spot rates being up is a good thing also. It’s an early indicator. The FTR truck utilization being over 95% is a good indicator. That’s also up. So these are all good things,” Sanchez said.
Flatbed spot rates have “been on fire” because of data center construction, according to Dean Croke, DAT iQ’s principal analyst.
Current multibillion dollar tech center projects are spread across multiple states, including Louisiana, Virginia, and Wisconsin, and they are driving specialized transportation needs for equipment like servers and cooling systems.
As of mid-March, flatbed contract rates, however, were still down year over year and tied to the soft broader economy, Croke said.
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Cass Commercial Bank, the backbone of the Cass payments infrastructure, provides customized equipment and vehicle finance solutions based on deep experience across all industries and economic cycles. Contact Scott Williams at (513)545-4605 or swilliams@cassbank.com to learn more.
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